GAYATRI RAMANATHAN

What kind of post 2012 structures do you see emerging internationally?

With the recent sale of the Chicago Climate Exchange to the Intercontinental Exchange (ICE), it looks likely that a centralized market will emerge internationally.  Whilst this may sound complex, it would actually simplify deals and make things more transparent, for both buyers and sellers.

What are your expectations of the Mexico climate summit? Do you see any movement forward from Copenhagen, given that the expected developments in the US seem to be taking longer and countries such as Australia have put off actioning domestic commitments till 2013?

Market participants are cautiously optimistic about the outcome of the climate change conference in Mexico’s Cancun resort at the end of this year, hoping it will yield a roadmap on carbon trading beyond 2012.  Whilst the US seems reluctant to commit unless developing countries commit to reductions also, it can no longer deny the reality of global warming or refuse to undertake action to mitigate it.  A similar scenario exists for Australia and thus, we feel that the outcome of the Mexico Summit should be positive.

What are the issues and challenges that we will see in India in terms of evolving an active domestic market for carbon credits? What is the influence that international markets would have on this?

Whilst carbon credits are already being traded on the MCX/NCDEX in India, we feel that it is more likely that mechanisms would be put in place to allow inter changeability between Renewable Energy Certificates (RECs) and CERs.  Thus, carbon credits (or any other similar mechanism that exists post Kyoto) would influence local trends, but there would also be independent price and volume determination by means of RECs.

What kind of structures are we likely to see in the Indian domestic market? What would be the drivers for the Indian markets?

The structure that we see emerging would be an overlap between domestic (in the form of RECs) and international (CER) commitments.  We feel that whilst domestic commitments would be the market driver, the CER influx would also determine prices and volumes traded.  This would also mean fair trade and a wider scope.  The domestic markets would be quite robust, independent of post Kyoto rulings.

Key trends & drivers in Indian SHP sector:-

Hydro capacity expected to reach 57,000 MW by 2012; small hydro potential is expected close to 15,000 MW.

MNRE has introduced subsidy schemes for SHPs up to 25 MW.

Well established manufacturing base for full range and type of small hydro equipment.

Key Trends & drivers in Indian biomass sector:-

Biomass potential is of 16,000 MW, Additional 5,000 MW possible through cogeneration at sugar mills.

Central financial assistance available for range of biomass technologies, but still market for biomass supply is unorganized.

Key Trends & drivers in Indian Solar Energy Sector:-

Huge potential for Solar Energy development in India

High sunshine days, abundance of sites make solar energy an attractive prospect.

Installed manufacturing capacity has grown from 10 MW in 2000 to a total of 335 MW by 2007 and expected to be 4,000 to 5,000 MW by 2017.

India is now 7th worldwide in Solar PV Cell production.

Generation capacities expected to pick up with generation linked subsidy announced by government

3000 plus MW of solar generation as well as manufacturing facilities announced by the Clinton Foundation in the state of Gujarat.

The proposed National Solar mission

20,000 MW of solar capacity by the year 2020

4,000 to 5,000 MW of solar manufacturing capacity by the year 2017