Amid the failure in Copenhagen to get an agreement, the one area that saw the most progress towards a final outcome was REDD, or reducing emissions from deforestation and forest degradation in developing countries.  Around 15 per cent of all greenhouse gas emissions worldwide come from the clearing of forests for their timber and for agricultural expansion, mainly in tropical countries. The long hoped for agreement on an international system to reduce deforestation and degradation, and enhance forest carbon stocks in developing countries, now specifically called REDD-Plus, is vital for tackling climate change.

 Among the generally thin commitments in the last-minute deal, the accord called for the ‘immediate establishment of a mechanism, including REDD-plus.’ This largely reflected the progress that had already been made towards an agreement. Ultimately, the deal to arrest deforestation’s enormous contribution to global climate change did not go through, but that was more a result of the general stalemate over the wider negotiations. The failure to strike an overall climate deal can destroy the chances of the sectoral agreements that underlie it. “It is a very real possibility that the REDD text will now get punted along for another year. But we are hopeful that enough momentum has been built up to see a final REDD agreement emerge in 2010,” said Kevin Conrad, the representative for Papua New Guinea who spoke on behalf of the Coalition of Rainforest Nations which kicked off the push for a REDD payment mechanism. UNFCCC secretary general, Yvo de Boer, termed it “oven ready.”

The Copenhagen Green Climate Fund also promises to ‘unleash prompt action’ in the absence of an overarching treaty. The fund will primarily mobilise the promised US $30 billion funding from developed countries on mitigation, adaptation, technology, REDD and capacity-building. A final outcome on REDD may happen in June at the scheduled climate talks in Bonn, said Louis Verchot, principal scientist in climate change for the Center for International Forestry Research. “Most of the question marks for getting REDD up and running have now gone a long way to being answered in the draft LCA text,” Verchot said. Concerns over the rights of indigenous people and local forest communities have been addressed. A key UNFCCC technical body also completed its work at Copenhagen on methodological issues around carbon measurement and monitoring, and delivered agreed draft text. Hard numbers, however, were missing from the text. Various options were a target to reduce deforestation—by 50 per cent by 2020, by 25 per cent from current levels by 2015, or to halt it entirely by 2030.

The UN timetable for REDD would see it begin in earnest in 2013, but many questions remain over how the mechanism would work. Most important now is the preparatory work up to the end of 2012 to build capacity for a robust system of any type to operate in developing countries. “Investments have already taken place over the last year or so, and I think we’re now going to see them ramp up,” Verchot commented. The money to establish REDD does appear to be on the table. The funding for the development stage began to appear from developed countries in 2009, and the US, UK, France, Japan, Australia and Norway pledged US $3.5 billion in Copenhagen.

 There is some doubt, however, as to whether these promises still stand in the absence of a comprehensive climate agreement. Funding for the implementation stage between 2013 and 2020 will require much more money—projected to be between US $20 billion and US $35 billion—and remains unresolved. It is likely to be settled only when the impasse over the overarching treaty is resolved.

Also Read

• GM crops save billion kg of CO2 gas emissions
• Tianjin climate talks deliver little
• Cancun Climate Talks: US $100 billion green climate fund
• A Suicide Pact: Sriniwas Krishnaswamy, policy advisor Greenpeace India
• Developing nations want 2011 climate pact deadline